NBA POWER RANKINGS - Preseason

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that these rankings aren't definitive, but they'll try to paint an image of how I see and foresee the league's teams performing long-term.

The Teams

1. Dallas Mavericks - The reigning champions, even though they lost Tyson Chandler and JJ Barea, will be tough to beat with the additions of Vince Carter and Lamar Odom. Lamar Odom IS REALLY GOOD.

2. Miami Heat - This team is an enigma -- talent-wise, they should be the best, but I'm not convinced guys like LeBron are mentally tough enough to win consistently against a team like Dallas. LeBron's playoff performance last year against the Mavs was almost suspiciously bad (for him; he's still better than almost everyone when he plays like crap). Add Shane Battier and this team gives LeBron some help on wing defense that should push them back into the finals.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder - Maybe THE most talented team in the league. And they're put together very well, to boot -- they have offense all over (Durant, Westbrook and Harden) and a very strong defensive core (Collison, Ibaka, Perkins and Sefolosha). What makes them weaker than Dallas and Miami is that their elite players are far less battle ready than the likes of Dirk, Jason Kidd, Dwyane Wade and LeBron. Who on the Thunder has even been to the finals? Perkins and Mohammed? Not quite ready yet.

4. Chicago Bulls - They'll never go anywhere when they're relying on Derrick Rose to create 99 percent of their offense. Luol Deng is a great spot up shooter and a scorer off screens. Boozer is great as a roll man or a pick-and-pop shooter. Rip is similar to Deng. But when the shotclock is winding down, who can create a decent shot attempt? Rose. So they stack on him. They need to find a low-post threat ASAP.

5. Boston Celtics - People are starting to sleep on these guys like they have been with the Spurs -- they're still good y'all. Maybe in a shortened season, they get their asses winded and stuff, but I really see this team as, at worst, staying the same (Bass replaces Davis, Green replaces their terrible bench, Wilcox == Jermaine O'Neal). And that team is a really god damn good team.

6. Memphis Grizzlies - These guys are good. Just see last year's playoffs and how far they pushed the Thunder. Getting Gay back is great, but losing Battier is going to hurt.

7. LA Clippers
8. Denver Nuggets
9. San Antonio Spurs
10. LA Lakers
11. Portland Trailblazers
12. Orlando Magic
13. Philadelphia 76ers
14. Atlanta Hawks
15. New York Knicks
16. Indiana Pacers
17. Brooklyn Nets
18. Milwaukee Bucks
19. Houston Rockets
20. Utah Jazz
21. Minnesota Timberwolves
22. Golden State Warriors
23. Phoenix Suns
24. Washington Wizards
25. Sacramento Kings
26. New Orleans Hornets
27. Detroit Pistons
28. Toronto Raptors
29. Charlotte Bobcats
30. Cleveland Cavaliers

Notice: Corey Brewer is still irrelevant

But here are some other players to look out for:

Josh McRoberts:

If it's true he's signing with the Lakers, consider him a perennial 6th man of the year candidate. Signing with the Lakers guarantees you'll be overvalued relative to your peers -- see just about everyone that has ever played for them who wasn't an all-star.

I'm still confused as to what people see in Shannon Brown or Trevor Ariza.

Amir Johnson:

I think he's going to be traded. The Raptors are king at trading away future all-stars -- Air Canada and T-Mac alone can vouch for this. Johnson will be dumped before the deadline for cap space or some washed up retread, I can almost guarantee it.

Let's hope he doesn't end back up on the Pistons, because he could have a nice career otherwise.

Jared Dudley:

With Grant Hill on the verge of death, Vince Carter leaving for the Mavericks and Mickael Pietrus being trash, Dudley has a lot of opportunity on the Suns roster to shine. It would not shock me at all if the Suns somehow snuck into the playoffs after last year's irrelevance -- excellent ball play out of Gortat, Dudley and Markieff Morris could heighten them.

NCAA Undefeated Watch

1. Kentucky -- Kentucky, of all the squads here, has likely the most legitimate chance at going undefeated in the regular season. Probably their biggest test, North Carolina, was felled this past weekend -- being the only true team to have any advantage over them throughout this season.

2. Ohio State -- I guarantee Ohio State will not go undefeated simply based on their imposing schedule. They have a who's who of top 25-talented teams on their calendar. I can't imagine them NOT dropping 2 or 3 games, at minimum.

Roadblocks: Kansas (away), Indiana (away), Illinois (away), Michigan State (away), Wisconsin (home/away).

3. Syracuse -- A very talented squad, but the trap with Syracuse is their limited match-up zone defense. That, and they play a notch lower in their opponents' arenas. This will spell their fate and inevitably lead to some losses.

Roadblocks: Marquette (home), Pittsburgh (home), UCONN (away), Louisville (home/away), Georgetown (home), West Virginia (home)

4. Marquette -- Like Syracuse, a very talented squad. Of Big East schools, the most likely to go undefeated.

Roadblocks: Syracuse (away), Washington (neutral), Georgetown (home/away), Vanderbilt (home), Louisville (home), Pittsburgh (home), UCONN (away)

5. Missouri -- This team has been throttling everyone, including top-25 ranked opponents. Clear favorites for the Big-12, I think they have a shot at running the table.

Roadblocks: Illinois (neutral), Kansas St (home/away), Texas (home/away), Kansas (home/away), Baylor (home/away)

6. Creighton -- MVC is on an upswing, and, to complicate things, they play a very tough out in St Joseph's next weekend. If they can come out with a W, they have a shot.

Roadblocks: St. Joseph's (away), Wichita St. (home/away), Northern Iowa (home/away), Missouri St. (home/away), Tulsa (away).

7. Murray St. -- A true contender for undefeated regular season. In the Ohio Valley Conference, they are the only team with a Kenpom rating better than 192 -- and they are 67th in the league. To make matters more interesting, the only out of conference game of note they have left is against Memphis this next Sunday. Beating Memphis is truly their only roadblock of significance.

Roadblocks: Memphis (away), Austin Peay (away)

8. Harvard -- Like Murray St., Harvard outmatches its conference opponents substantially. There is doubt Harvard will win the Ivy League and get their automatic NCAA bid. The question is, how high can Harvard rise in the polls?

Harvard has two real tests in UCONN this Thursday and St. Joseph's at the end of this month.

Roadblocks: UCONN (away), St. Joseph's (home)

Teams who are undefeated but have zero shot at remaining so:

Louisville - Barely beat Vanderbilt, their only top 50 opponent, in overtime. Has played a laughably easy schedule up until that game.

Indiana - They play Ohio State twice. They play Kentucky. They play Wisconsin. They play Purdue twice. These are all elite squads. I don't expect them to remain undefeated past next weekend.

Baylor - They have played, up until this point -- like Louisville -- incredibly easy teams. There is no chance of them going undefeated after sleepwalking through fake division I teams.

Xavier - Chris Mack's squad plays a very tough Atlantic-10 schedule, highlighted by random OOC trysts with Memphis and Gonzaga. I can't imagine them getting past the A-10 onslaught unscathed.

Kansas State - See: Baylor.

Illinois -- See: Indiana.

Tulane -- Surprise undefeated team of the season. They have stomped all over opponents this season, including beating Georgia Tech this past week. However, they play Syracuse, Memphis and a fairly solid roster of Conference USA squads who will surely take a few wins away from them.

ESPN's most underrated players

Continuing with the theme from my earlier post, #nbarank underrated a vast many players. Some of their rankings are so out of touch with reality, it makes me question anything that comes out of ESPN regarding NBA analysis.

Here are the most underrated players as compared to ESPN's #nbarank:

1. Ryan Anderson - Criminally underrated. He is already one of the best pick-and-pop forwards in the league. It is a rarity to have a big man with his abilities on the offensive end and not be limited defensively. Effectively, a better Rashard Lewis offensively and defensively (ESPN ranked 144, I ranked 225); he is a nice pairing with Dwight Howard.

Krank #44; ESPN #167

2. Amir Johnson - Johnson is likely the best player on the Raptors. That's not saying much, but the NBA has a larger talent pool than ESPN seems to think. Johnson has the potential to be an All-Star. If they could pair him with someone outside of Bargnani, they would be in a much better position. If I were the GM of the Raptors, moving Bargnani to fill in the void at SF would be my biggest priority.

Krank #52; ESPN # 90

3. Gerald Henderson - Henderson is underrated due to playing for Charlotte. That is it. He unexpectedly came into his own late last season. A very solid starter -- two-way player. Not a fringe bench player. His ESPN rank is alarmingly out of whack, and it shows how ignorant the average ESPN writer is in regards to players outside of the top media markets. If you ever think you're not as smart as an ESPN writer -- think again. They're hired for their ability to whet a hardened piece of colon cyst into copper-zinc-some other worthless metal.

Krank #73; ESPN #242

4. Kevin Garnett - Garnett's aging has been incredibly smooth, and his 'decline' has barely raised its ugly head. He is still an All-Star and probably a top 10 player. I understand the aging concern, but he is a player likely to play well into his aging. He is no longer a banger. His defense is largely based on his length. He is a pick-and-pop forward with outstanding range and skill that doesn't require him to throw his thinning frame around in the low post. And the ESPN #nbarank was based on RIGHT NOW -- not three years into the future. Give me KG over Stoudemire any day of the week.

Krank #7; ESPN #22

5. LaMarcus Aldridge - Incredibly underrated. He is probably the most dangerous low post threat outside of Dirk Nowitzki. In fact, he may be a better low post threat -- Dirk just has more range and more ability facing the basket. Aldridge should be a household name, and that is the only thing holding him back from an elite ranking in #nbarank.

Krank #9; ESPN #23

6. Josh McRoberts - This is another case of big market writers not watching smaller market teams. McRoberts and Hansbrough were nearly split on minutes for power forward through the year for the Pacers, and McRoberts actually outplayed Hansbrough for most of it. Hansbrough is ranked 122 by ESPN -- which is likely not good enough as well. Considering Hansbrough is over 2 years older than McRoberts and clearly has a limited upset potential, I would take McRoberts over him 9 out of 10 times.

Krank #90; ESPN #250

7. Jeremy Evans - Evans, when given playing time, was an incredibly efficient offensive and defensive player for a rookie. The key is playing time. His inconsistent minutes led to inconsistent play. He has the ability to be a solid sixth man right now. Not a player who is barely making a team. I would take him over Diaw or Marvin Williams any day. Being able to dunk at-will is far more effective than being an out-of-shape has been passing big or a lottery bust. Yet #nbarank thinks it's kosher to give him a value that is on par with players such as washed up acts like Malik Allen, garbage like Brian Scalabrine, and unknown rookies such as Norris Cole. He is likely the most horribly ranked of the entire bunch here, but his lack of starting role makes him less sexy in my own rankings.

Krank #91; ESPN #430

8. Danilo Gallinari - Gallinari being ranked in the 60s is an enigma, largely in that he brings to the table everything Bargnani was supposed to bring to the table. Scrappy euro-defense. High level of decision-making. Incredibly effective triple-threat skills. Knock-out shooter. He IS the complete offensive package. Understandably, his usage isn't incredibly high yet like most star players, but he has the skillset. I imagine Denver will use him heavily this year.

Krank #29; ESPN #68

9. Kris Humphries - ESPN has a tendency to overrate scrubs on good teams and underrate stars on bad teams. In the middle, the roleplayers and starters on these bad and mediocre teams, you will find a wide swing of valuations. Humphries falls into the pack of undervalued starters. As a power forward, his offensive abilities are limited -- but this is offset by Brook Lopez. Humphries bangs where Lopez shies away. This sort of player is invaluable, and he is likely better than a fringe starter as ESPN seems to think.

Krank #63; ESPN #145

10. Manu Ginobili - Manu has been underrated throughout his career, which is surprising considering his pedigree and number of championships under his belt. He is better than Kobe Bryant. I said it. That demarcation is a huge hurdle for some people, but Ginobili has not declined anywhere near the rate of Kobe, and Ginobili plays FAR better defense to make up for any declination. I think Kobe is still a better offensive threat, especially in the triangle offense, but Manu is the better all-around player.

Krank #8; ESPN #18

11. Greg Oden Krank #78; ESPN #174
12. Paul George #92; ESPN #205
13. Trevor Booker #148; ESPN #321
14. Louis Williams #81; ESPN #173
15. Damion James #154; ESPN #352
16. Chase Budinger # 79; ESPN #170
17. Marcin Gortat #41; ESPN #86
18. Andre Miller #43: ESPN #89
19. Tyrus Thomas #61; ESPN #123
20. Raymond Felton #40; ESPN #80
21. Dorell Wright #77; ESPN #152
22. Greg Monroe #69; ESPN #132
23. Ekpe Udoh #158; ESPN #300
24. Anthony Morrow #111 ESPN #209
25. Gerald Wallace #26 ESPN #48

ESPN's Most Overrated List

If you've been following #nbarank on twitter or over on ESPN's site, you already know what this is. If you haven't, summary: ESPN writers ranked the top 500 NBA players in the NBA. Their results, plastered all over the internet, are incredibly controversial regarding top 10 players -- Kobe and Carmelo being low for what their fans expected.

I think ESPN was too kind. I think they weren't being real. So I ranked all of the players myself -- based on a formula devoted to upside (% variable sequentially dependent on birthdate of player), offensive ability (partially based on efficiency, TS%, offensive rebounding and usage), defensive ability (defensive efficiency, defensive rebounding rate), and weighted adjusted +/- ranking (courtesy of 82games). I peered over this, and for any inconsistencies, near ties, clear mishaps (weighting end of bench players over starters) or any other gut reactions -- I made subjective changes.

My list is meaningless as a unit, but the excerpts of the list will be brought out and used to attack ESPN's list.

Let's begin with ESPN's most overrated players:

1. Deron Williams - 9th in the league? Here's the deal. He's worse than Carmelo who was listed as 12th -- who is ALSO incredibly overrated. Deron Williams of two years ago might have been this high, but he was largely a product of the team he played with. His defense is atrocious. His shift to the Nets worsened him. His overseas play has been shockingly terrible. Williams I guess could be a top 50 player -- barely -- and that's what he should be around. But top ten? Come the fuck on.

Krank - #54; ESPN - #9

2. Carmelo Anthony - Carmelo was outraged at being listed 12th, but the real outrage is the ongoing scam that Carmelo is anything but a gunner. Carmelo has more in common with JR Smith than players like Kevin Durant (a true top ten player). Carmelo plays close to zero defense. Mind you, this doesn't make him a bad player. It just makes him one-sided. And an entirely one-sided player has to work harder on his strong side than a two-way player to make up for it. Carmelo may arguably be the best scorer in the game, but being the best scorer does NOT make you the best basketball player.

Krank - #48; ESPN - #12

3. Kirk Hinrich - I don't understand the appeal here. Is it his reputation as being a "Wade" stopper? The Rec-Specs? Regardless, this is just patently stupid ranking him anywhere above the top 250. He is, at best, a mediocre 8th man. Not starter caliber. This is probably the most bizarre and out of place ranking on the list, but mediocre bench player to ok starter is nowhere near as exciting as clamoring for Deron Williams as a top 10 v. top 50 player.

Krank - #443; ESPN - #129

4. Joakim Noah - I get that he hustles. I get that he plays strong defense. But he is not a top 30 player. ESPN analysts make the mistake of overrating him due to the phenomenon of a team -- the sum of the players -- being better than them as individuals. Noah manifests the Chicago defense, but falls short in anything other than that. A solid starter, but by no means is he an elite player.

Krank - #94; ESPN - #29

5. Kendrick Perkins - Overrated Perkins has become en vogue ever since the blockbuster Celtics trade that landed Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen on the team. Perkins, being the weakest starter of the five while a Celtic, benefited greatly by playing alongside Hall of Famer Garnett -- one of the best defenders in the league over the past decade. People misinterpret this as Perkins being a 'great' defender. Perkins is an above average defender. No more, no less. That really doesn't scream top 100 to me.

Krank - #300; ESPN - #95

6. John Wall - Here is a case of potential outweighing abilities. John Wall is an explosive athlete -- but that doesn't mean he is a good basketball player, yet. This mistake has been made several times in the past with players such as James White and Jamario Moon. Being an athlete doesn't mean you're good at basketball. John Wall's turnover percentage is a testament to that. However, one would be mistaken to say that Wall isn't a good basketball player. He's just not top 50 yet. He's a solid starter; nothing more.

Krank - #126; ESPN - #40

7. Amar'e Stoudemire - Ama're is a lot like Melo in that he doesn't play defense. BUT HE GETS BLOCKS! You're right. But so does Hasheem Thabeet -- one of the worst players in the league. Getting blocks does not equal good defense. In fact, often times, good paint defenders do not get incredibly high block rates. High block rates, like high steal rates, can mean a lot of different things. In Stoudemire's case, it means he sags off of his man to gamble on blocking a shot -- leaving someone wide open. Matador defense. He's may be one of the best roll men in the league, but he isn't quit top 25 anymore.

Krank - #37; ESPN - #13

8. Russell Westbrook - Westbrook is amazingly good, especially for his age. But he's not top 25 yet in terms of ability. He still makes poor decisions and tries to do too much. Allen Iverson syndrome. Westbrook, however, does not have an excuse quite like Iverson. With a legit top 10 player standing by him and an arsenal of top 150 players surrounding him, he should be passing out of his 20 footers more often.

Krank - #42; ESPN - #15

9. Mehmet Okur - Washed up. Injury-prone. These are things we associate with players like Tracy McGrady but seem to forget when talking about 7 foot stiffs.

Krank - #381; ESPN - #139

10. Aaron Brooks - Brooks was never that good to begin with. He has and always was a gunner. Because of his height and frame, his defense is laughably bad. Chalk him up to another failed Steve Nash backup. Definitely not starting caliber.

Krank - #308; ESPN - #118

11. Brandon Jennings - Krank #157; ESPN #60
12. Devin Harris - Krank #171; ESPN #69
13. Marc Gasol - Krank #64; ESPN #26
14. Joel Przybilla - Krank #486; ESPN #198
15. Jason Kidd - Krank #114; ESPN #49
16. Elton Brand - Krank #144; ESPN #62
17. Andres Nocioni - Krank #456; ESPN #197
18. O.J. Mayo - Krank #212; ESPN #93
19 Samuel Dalembert - Krank #252; ESPN #112
20. Antawn Jamison - Krank #235; ESPN #107
21. Evan Turner - Krank #366; ESPN #171
22. Glen Davis - Krank #250; ESPN #117
23. David Lee - Krank #115; ESPN #54
24. Josh Childress - Krank #369; ESPN #175
25. Brandon Roy - Krank #124; ESPN #59


Various other overrated players on ESPN:
Steve Blake, Marcus Camby, Trevor Ariza, Jameer Nelson

Note: Video analysis eventually to follow.

Update on 11/23/11:

Deron Williams is actually playing well overseas -- so pretend that negative judgment of mine never happened.

Introducing Corey Maggette

Corey "Bad Porn" Maggette, perhaps known more for his infamous nickname, has always been an enigma in the league.

How does he score points? How does he evade paying child support for Jarrett Jack?

82games breaks down players' scoring tendencies down per possession to uncover these ugly tricks. For Bad Porn, his game is overwhelmingly simple: get fouled. Last year, 09-10 season, he was fouled on over 20 percent of his possessions. To break that down for you, that lead to him attempting the 9th most free throws in the league that season -- putting up a stat line at times that looked more like LeBron James than the Jerry Stackhouse-stylings observers have expected over the years.

In a perfect world, this sort of foul magnet witchcraft would be useful for the Bobcats' stagnant offense. But much of Maggette's effectiveness was limited this past season on the Bucks. It seems that the slower, more Bobcats-esque pace of Milwaukee removes much of Bad Porn's effectiveness. Playing on the lightning fast, VMI-style (side note: it's also worth mentioning Keith Benson and the Oakland Golden Grizzlies, Golden State's home city, both play at similarly electric paces) Warriors allowed Maggette to hide his defensive failings as well as rack up fouls against the weak-in-general league wide transition defenses.

Simply put, Maggette is good at abusing poor transition defense. Teams that don't get back quickly will find Maggette driving quickly and wildly towards the basket, awaiting a pass for an ugly transition jumper that looks like some slanted horror out of Dr. Caligari's Cabinet. But Bad Porn is only able to do this if his team is willing to run uptempo.

The Bobcats are one of the slowest teams in the league, and that pace does not look to accelerate with players like Kwame Brown anchoring our defense. We are expected to be a half court team regardless of the rumors swirling from the Charlotte front office.

Expect Bad Porn traded midseason (if there is one). I don't think he's part of MJ or Richard Cho's plans for a competitive 'Cats.

Post-Jackson, Post-Wallace, Post-Felton

The trio that made our magical '09 run special have all but left us. What remains is a skeleton crew of young player with upside (Augustin, Thomas, Henderson), a who's-who of underachieving journeymen (Kwame, Maggette, Matt Caroll) and a couple of highly-touted rookies (Walker, Biyombo).

This new crew, along with the recent addition of Richard Cho, gives me hope for a future years down the road. Perhaps we will see our obvious tanking makeup reap long-term rewards.

I'm excited to watch Corey "Bad Porn" Maggette brick layup after layup. I'm pumped to watch Kemba Walker's stepback jumper get blocked every attempt because he's like 5'9. I'm wet with perspiration just thinking about Biyombo's ability to dunk a lot.

Dwyane Wade Getting Shot in the Eye

"Like a scene out of Shawshank Redemption, Dwyane Wade reaches out to express the deepest emotions within. Except here, there ain't no raining involved." - Me, KevinTheW, about 5 minutes ago.

Watching D-Wade pull his best flopping Bunny man moment from Donnie Darko really inspired me to post the gif on the left and pretend I'm interested at all in this post-Bobcats' universe.

As a Bobcats fan, who do you root for in a scenario such as this -- the large-market Dallas team, fronting a feisty owner, a large German man with protruding forehead, and NBA Jam: TE's own Jason Kidd or the WWE's own Miami Heat. The Heat, at least, are shown to have acting talents as expressed to the left of this page. But do their C-level talents muster enough flavor to bring out the savoriness I expect in a finals team?

I don't know.

I do know that Dallas' color scheme is far less matchy-match than the Heat's obnoxious orange-yellow/red palette. Then again, orange is the color of our favorite team flavor -- so I am conflicted.

Who do I turn to? Do I turn to the umame, the savory sweet that the Dallas brings with their rugged, aged core? Or do I go with the kitsch, the cheese -- the so-called Glitzentruppe -- of the Hollywood Heat?

As a Bobcat, this discussion becomes my solace knowing full well that our front office will likely draft future overpaid NBA journeyman and DeSagana Diop clone Bismack Biyombo.

More to Come

In the waining hours of Easter Sunday, I decided to resurrect this buried relic of the early '09 season. The inspiration, my muse, for the Bobcats ramblings has left us -- but he still remains in our hearts. And as a true fan of the Charlotte Bobcats, I choose to leave his name as a memorial of sorts and push onward into a new era post-Raymond -- a more avant garde world dominated by a strange assortment of failed Stephen Jackson early jumper isolations and Gerald Henderson putbacks.

This new Bobcats' generation, especially without fallen hero Gerald Wallace, is that man at the rundown dive with the jew-fro who watches you silently from his tilted bar stool. He's wearing unfashionably white Reeboks. He's got wire frames and a half-grown mustache. You're unsure of him, but he seems harmless enough. He might be a hipster.

But in those sour, darting eyes, a cruel shape is springing forth. A man who wants more than to finish his now warm beer. He wants that top-shelf special only the regulars know about.

We're at that point in our fandom where sticking by him could be a one-night stand mistake or helping him shave that mustache off could be the difference maker in a successful relationship.

I'm willing to look past the frames.