Monday, December 5, 2011

NCAA Undefeated Watch

1. Kentucky -- Kentucky, of all the squads here, has likely the most legitimate chance at going undefeated in the regular season. Probably their biggest test, North Carolina, was felled this past weekend -- being the only true team to have any advantage over them throughout this season.

2. Ohio State -- I guarantee Ohio State will not go undefeated simply based on their imposing schedule. They have a who's who of top 25-talented teams on their calendar. I can't imagine them NOT dropping 2 or 3 games, at minimum.

Roadblocks: Kansas (away), Indiana (away), Illinois (away), Michigan State (away), Wisconsin (home/away).

3. Syracuse -- A very talented squad, but the trap with Syracuse is their limited match-up zone defense. That, and they play a notch lower in their opponents' arenas. This will spell their fate and inevitably lead to some losses.

Roadblocks: Marquette (home), Pittsburgh (home), UCONN (away), Louisville (home/away), Georgetown (home), West Virginia (home)

4. Marquette -- Like Syracuse, a very talented squad. Of Big East schools, the most likely to go undefeated.

Roadblocks: Syracuse (away), Washington (neutral), Georgetown (home/away), Vanderbilt (home), Louisville (home), Pittsburgh (home), UCONN (away)

5. Missouri -- This team has been throttling everyone, including top-25 ranked opponents. Clear favorites for the Big-12, I think they have a shot at running the table.

Roadblocks: Illinois (neutral), Kansas St (home/away), Texas (home/away), Kansas (home/away), Baylor (home/away)

6. Creighton -- MVC is on an upswing, and, to complicate things, they play a very tough out in St Joseph's next weekend. If they can come out with a W, they have a shot.

Roadblocks: St. Joseph's (away), Wichita St. (home/away), Northern Iowa (home/away), Missouri St. (home/away), Tulsa (away).

7. Murray St. -- A true contender for undefeated regular season. In the Ohio Valley Conference, they are the only team with a Kenpom rating better than 192 -- and they are 67th in the league. To make matters more interesting, the only out of conference game of note they have left is against Memphis this next Sunday. Beating Memphis is truly their only roadblock of significance.

Roadblocks: Memphis (away), Austin Peay (away)

8. Harvard -- Like Murray St., Harvard outmatches its conference opponents substantially. There is doubt Harvard will win the Ivy League and get their automatic NCAA bid. The question is, how high can Harvard rise in the polls?

Harvard has two real tests in UCONN this Thursday and St. Joseph's at the end of this month.

Roadblocks: UCONN (away), St. Joseph's (home)

Teams who are undefeated but have zero shot at remaining so:

Louisville - Barely beat Vanderbilt, their only top 50 opponent, in overtime. Has played a laughably easy schedule up until that game.

Indiana - They play Ohio State twice. They play Kentucky. They play Wisconsin. They play Purdue twice. These are all elite squads. I don't expect them to remain undefeated past next weekend.

Baylor - They have played, up until this point -- like Louisville -- incredibly easy teams. There is no chance of them going undefeated after sleepwalking through fake division I teams.

Xavier - Chris Mack's squad plays a very tough Atlantic-10 schedule, highlighted by random OOC trysts with Memphis and Gonzaga. I can't imagine them getting past the A-10 onslaught unscathed.

Kansas State - See: Baylor.

Illinois -- See: Indiana.

Tulane -- Surprise undefeated team of the season. They have stomped all over opponents this season, including beating Georgia Tech this past week. However, they play Syracuse, Memphis and a fairly solid roster of Conference USA squads who will surely take a few wins away from them.

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